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At first, Trump gave the impression to take a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking peace talks, he eventually introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capacity to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace plan for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European input, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the proposal in reality undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in status the already split oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would force the nation to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv in case he eventually decide to renew the war.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Every radical belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." As if to emphasize this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "establish in law its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of seized territory in the region to the government – why should anyone trust this commitment on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on international security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "decisive unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

Another side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "major, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against renewed invasion – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not