Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”