A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
